For a European country to become a member of the European Union, it must fulfill established conditions. These were politically formulated at the European Communities summit in Copenhagen in 1993.
These criteria applied to us and must be applied to all candidate countries.
Politically, the candidate country must be a democratic state with stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, respect for human rights, and respect for and protection of minorities (including Russian-speaking populations).
The candidate country's economy must be based on a functioning free market with the capacity to cope with competitive pressures and market forces within the European Union.
The candidate country must be capable of effectively assuming the obligations arising from membership, the acquis communautaire (EU legal order). Generally, this concerns the ability to fulfill obligations connected with membership, including adherence to the goals of political, economic, and monetary union, namely regarding state budget deficit levels and public finances.
Ukraine fulfills none of these conditions.
Furthermore, we do not know which Ukraine is to be admitted to the Union. Is this Ukraine within its pre-2014 borders (before the annexation of Crimea) or a country with different boundaries? For the EU, it would be unacceptable to admit a country whose territory is occupied by another power. Ukraine's admission cannot mean that part of the Union's territory would be under the dominion of the Russian Federation.
One might observe that Ukraine cannot fulfill the conditions while at war. One might recommend waiting for better times. This would be an error. The post-war situation will not be better. On the contrary, it will be even worse. Ukraine will suffer from a shortage of male workforce, exiles will not return in majority, and those who do return will not be welcomed by that part of society which bore the burden of war in their homeland. I would further note that the country contains an uncontrolled enormous quantity of weapons and ammunition. One need not possess great imagination to understand that for a long time to come, people will settle "accounts" individually or in groups, as "just retribution." This will be about revenge, not justice. The process of Ukrainian-Ukrainian reconciliation will be extremely complex. It will take a very long time before state authority is fully restored.
In its reconstruction process, Ukraine will of necessity turn to other countries requesting migrants, because money alone will not build roads, buildings, railways, and other infrastructure. Sufficient workforce will be needed. Russians will be unacceptable as workforce, and European Union citizens will not come. Thus Ukraine will turn for assistance to other regions. Ukraine will become a country with strong migration from the Middle East and North Africa. This bodes nothing good for Europe.
Ukraine lacks experience with the democratic form of government as we know it in the European Union. Information increasingly suggests that the fight against corruption and oligarch rule is not succeeding. Hope for rapid positive change is minimal. There even exists a risk (though we do not wish for it) that the fundamental European direction of Ukrainian politics may change in the future.
Furthermore, one must consider the costs that will need to be incurred for Ukraine's reconstruction. It is estimated that Ukraine's net receipts from the Union would consume more than 10% of the entire EU budget. This would mean a change of priorities throughout the Union, more money for Ukraine at the expense of other member states, or the need to increase member states' contributions to the Union. And this must be considered in light of the weak level of transparency that prevails in Ukraine.
Promising Ukraine membership in the foreseeable future is dishonest. It will not happen. It is necessary to find another (honest) format of close cooperation between the EU and Ukraine, otherwise the process will end badly. Frustration among Ukraine's population may lead to anti-Union sentiment, and this is not in our interest.
Cyril Svoboda
