Topic: Prospects for global development
Assignment: According to expert opinions, current global development has been heading for some time towards a probable new division of the world and distribution of spheres of influence among newly formed coalitions, which is already partially manifesting in some areas. This process is being accelerated by current crises (Ukraine, Middle East, energy, and other negative factors). What is your opinion on how the new redistribution of the world might look in political, economic, and military terms? Please justify your opinion.
Content: 1. Praefatio. 2. Current State. Globalization vs. Deglobalization. Asia and China. Africa. Middle East. Europe. Conclusion on Current State. 3. Postfatio – Summary.
Author: Ladislav J. Janků
1. Praefatio
Given the assignment, the most appropriate form of processing appears to be a free reflection, with no specific parameters given; the only formal requirement stated is a minimum scope of seven pages in A4 format without citation of sources and attachment of a presentation. It must be noted that this cannot be a scholarly work, as the author is not equipped with the requisite deeper erudition, and thus draws only from lay processing of information available from everyday life, several thematic lectures within studies at the Diplomatic Academy, and their free evaluation without deeper knowledge in the field of geopolitical, geoeconomic, and geocultural thinking.
2. Current State
Global development in recent decades shows increasing fragmentation of the world order, caused by several main factors: geopolitical conflicts, economic imbalances, technological changes, and crises such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, the current war in Ukraine, and in the Middle East. The influence of climate change can also be added to this. We can observe efforts to form new power blocs and divide the world into competing spheres of influence. This process resembles the bipolar era of the Cold War but is more complex and multipolar.
Globalization vs. Deglobalization
While globalization has been discussed until now, in many parts of the world one can observe rather the opposite phenomenon, which can be termed deglobalization. Political changes at the global level can be understood as a shift from a unipolar world, where the United States dominated, to a multipolar arrangement where several significant powers compete for influence. This is also evidenced by efforts of individual countries to protect their local markets from "invaders" from outside; thus protectionist practices are applied in trade, as well as efforts to protect their cultural identity from risks generated by the ongoing migration process. However, migration has always been present in human history. Protectionist efforts are understandable and natural when each of the affected entities tries to defend its existence against external influences. We can therefore consider it logical when individual societies open or close depending on external factors and risk assessment. Unfortunately, the growing geopolitical tension particularly evident between the USA and China brings only counterproductive trade wars, economically deforming individual markets and weakening competing parties. This can lead further to even greater division of global markets and reduction of economic globalization as it has been present until now. The USA is trying to diversify supply chains and reduce its dependence on China, which will affect global economic relations and may lead to the emergence of regional trading blocs. Europe is doing the same vis-à-vis Russia, albeit for somewhat different reasons. The weakening of trade relations then directly proportionally brings weakening of relations overall, which conversely leads to increased risk of mutual conflicts, because where trade flourishes, there is no conflict, or at least the risk of its occurrence is minimized. We can state that globalization has both positive and negative aspects; what seems appropriate as a solution is the effort for balance with consideration of the specificities of the subject areas.
Asia and China
From a global perspective, however, it is not only about geopolitical tension between the USA and China or Europe and Russia; a certain degree of tension can be identified also in the Asian region, among others between India and Pakistan, traditionally between North and South Korea. One cannot overlook the current rise of Vietnam, the area of Japan or the Philippines, China vs. Taiwan, the ambitions of several players to control the South China Sea, etc. From this perspective, these are potential flashpoints of possible future conflicts with broader impacts. China within the region has and will continue to have dominant influence; its growth is based not only on economic successes but also on targeted geopolitical strategy. China is significantly active, initiating the establishment of the SCO platform (2001), which it further developed in the form of the New Silk Road or One Belt One Road (2013), but did not stop even here, as it continues to purposefully build its sphere of influence in Asia, Africa, and Latin America through massive investments, thereby securing, among other things, access to necessary resources for production, thus strengthening both its economy and influence overall. By this it de facto transforms the global political balance, having become a key player on the global stage over the past two decades. Its steps thus appear rationally conceived with a view extending beyond the commonly perceived horizon. In this can be seen its significant geopolitical competitive advantage, leading to economically bifurcating tendencies in the world, where states, depending on their ties to China or the West, decide to cooperate with one or the other bloc. Essentially, in the spirit of Sun Tzu's principles, it implements a policy of "warfare without warfare," successfully conquering what it needs without battle and without significant conflicts. However, the fact of massive armament over the past two decades and the goals openly proclaimed by China also testify to the fact that it is equally thoughtfully preparing for open military conflict to secure and strengthen its position in the region, as well as to realize its ambition of global dominance on the world map.
Africa
One cannot fail to mention the strategic significance of Africa, which, although it generally appears as a poor region in terms of living standards, possesses considerable reserves of mineral wealth, in which other players are interested, given the lower availability of some raw materials crucial for obtaining a range of elements. There is therefore interest in Africa. At the same time, there is potential here for other types of investments that could improve the overall level, thereby also reducing migration tendencies of local inhabitants; if it were possible to significantly improve living standards here, the strong motivation of the local population to leave their countries with prospects of a better life elsewhere would disappear. However, this represents building local infrastructures, including education, healthcare, culture, but also production and development of trade.
Middle East
The last significant region outside Europe that must be mentioned is the area of the Middle East. The Middle East continues to remain one of the key geopolitical regions whose stability has an impact on the entire world. At the same time, considerable continuous tension is evident here, having numerous causes, not excluding cultural-religious differences, as well as the presence of rich oil deposits, etc. This has long generated a series of conflicts, including military ones, both between individual local actors and within individual states in the form of civil wars, etc. Thus one can speak of long-term instability in the region. Although the United States officially declares that it seeks to maintain stability in the Middle East, the approaches of individual American administrations differ considerably. From this perspective, the targeted deinstallation of authoritarian regimes in North African and Middle Eastern countries directed by the USA may appear as an ill-considered step, not thought through in terms of consequences. Theories also appear about a targeted intent to provoke precisely these consequences, but such hypotheses cannot be verified or substantiated in any way, so they can be classified rather in the category bordering on conspiracy theories. Undeniable, however, is the fact that it is possible today to describe the current state in these countries as an unsuccessful transformation, with a significant increase in poverty, mass exodus, or mass and spontaneous migration having negative consequences for Europe as well, instability of these countries, from which follows further increase in instability of an already unstable region. The effort to implement Western values while ignoring significant and incompatible cultural-mental differences appears as an unrealistic goal – specific values have a place where they have roots, and should not be forcibly imported elsewhere where they have no roots. Does freedom of speech, for example, really mean more to the inhabitants of a certain country than the fact that they have nothing to eat and live in poverty, chaos, even morass? These efforts appear rather as an expression of either inflated self-centeredness or simple stupidity with a lack or complete absence of foresight. The consequence is far too many foreign policy mistakes by Western powers, which are now turning against them. Will they continue in this conduct nevertheless? Probably yes, which is distressing. Although it may sound controversial, the autocratic leaders in Libya, Egypt, or Iraq could be described as pillars of stability. From this follows a lesson about the importance of the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of individual countries, always of course with consideration of specific circumstances and the specificity of the area, hand in hand with awareness of possible adverse consequences. The challenge primarily remains how to effectively limit Iran's maneuvering space as a significant threat in the region, while maintaining firm relations with key allies in the region such as Israel and Turkey, while simultaneously taking into account the unpredictability of the Turkish administration. As for resolving the Palestinian question, consideration of a two-state solution presents itself rather as a theoretical starting point, which is clearly not realistic at present, though in the long-term horizon probably not entirely unthinkable. The geopolitical situation in the region continues to develop dynamically, and the United States will continue to play a key role, at least in the medium term, in finding balance between regional interests and its global ambitions.
Europe
In conclusion of the brief description of the current state, it is necessary to mention several points regarding the situation in Europe and its position from a global perspective. In the European region, long-term stagnation is already evident; economists increasingly speak of a crisis of the German economy, which thus closely affects the Czech Republic given its interconnection to the point of dependence. The impacts of migration are also evident, especially in Italy, Germany, and France, which can also be termed a migration crisis. Climate change and the necessity of transition to renewable energy sources also change global economic relations, naturally with impacts on Europe as well, which, if it sets a goal to achieve climate neutrality, will be forced to make radical changes in economic structures, which may affect its relations with fossil fuel suppliers. Incidentally, the current state or if you will the "health" of Europe is described much more broadly by the recent Draghi report, which analyzes the current competitiveness of the EU, where it also proposes strategies to strengthen it particularly in areas of investment, industrial policy, energy reform, and social policy. It is clear that without radical reforms and restructuring of the economy within the EU, its further gradual decline threatens, which may weaken the union even more significantly. For this, implementation of a series of steps is necessary, among which we can mention efforts to diversify both supply and customer chains, including orientation of exports also to Southeast Asia, North and South America, Latin America, etc. It is necessary to strengthen trade development in general, and that towards both dominant poles, because good trade develops good relations and is prevention of conflicts, thus a prerequisite for peace, and significantly support development of crisis territories to prevent increase in migration and generation of further disputes, all this in conjunction and with support of quality, foresighted, proactive, and thus responsible diplomacy. From the political-economic mentality, foresight, and prudence of Asian, or rather Chinese thinking, it is also possible to draw inspiration; however, apparently only those who accept this mentality, connected also with philosophical orientation, as their own are capable of applying it in strategic decision-making. For the Czech Republic, consolidation of position in the subregion defined by the V4 states appears crucial, where it could or rather should be in the interest of participating states to exert maximum effort to achieve a timeless sub-alliance in all essential planes: political, economic, and military. While many differences and conflicting positions are evident, especially in the economic plane (e.g., Czech Republic vs. Poland), at the same time clear and concrete intersections exist. Thus a revised and restructured pact built on these contact points could be a starting point. This would offer creation of a foundation for building a stronger position not only within EU structures but also externally. However, the prerequisite is sufficient perspective, ability to look beyond mutual differences, and conversely identification of common goals in these areas, which however only strong political personalities with the role of leader, appropriate political will, and courage can accomplish. The question remains whether V4 countries possess personalities equipped with these attributes, or whether this will happen in the foreseeable future. This solution would strengthen the political position; it would also be a starting platform for economic reforms, where it is necessary to escape from the trap of cheap economies, which would contribute to finding a suitable path for diversification of trade chains, suppression of dependence towards both East and West. In the military plane, coordination of mutual subregional security policy is also realistic, indeed even desirable, when it is evident that boundless reliance only on help from other members of the North Atlantic Alliance will not be possible. Incidentally, the entire EU thinks this way too, as other European states, especially as a result of the war in Ukraine, strive to strengthen their military autonomy. The European Union is beginning to seriously discuss creation of its own defense forces independent of the USA and NATO. This trend could lead to the emergence of a European military alliance that would function parallel to NATO, or as a kind of sub-alliance within NATO primarily oriented to security in Europe, but would have a greater degree of autonomy, especially in crises that primarily affect the European continent. Therefore, the possible existence of a specifically oriented bloc within the EU, formed by V4 states, makes sense, not only with regard to its geographical location and proximity to the apparently unstable area of Ukraine-Russia in the future as well.
Conclusion on Current State
It is clear that especially during the last decade there has been more dynamic development in the world, interwoven with both the mentioned phenomenon of deglobalization and efforts to redistribute influence towards multipolar arrangement, formation and activities of new political-economic groupings, among them for example the gradually strengthening BRICS, accompanied by military conflicts, especially in Ukraine and the Middle East. Global development of recent decades is thus characterized by growing fragmentation and transition from unipolar to multipolar world arrangement. This process is driven by geopolitical conflicts, economic imbalances, technological changes, pandemic and other crises, military conflicts in multiple places, and climate changes.
3. Perspectives of Further Development
Estimating future development in these areas, influenced by so many variable factors, seems to be a task not unlike fortune-telling from a crystal ball. Nevertheless, it can be stated that in the relatively foreseeable future there will be an increase in tension caused by the above-mentioned influences, when current and future world powers will try to gain or maintain and strengthen their dominance, with the perspective of controlling and managing global events. The pursuit of hegemony is as old as humanity itself; it is natural behavior, especially for larger entities. One could say that it grows directly proportionally with expansiveness, thereby supporting it. For achieving global power, control of four key areas is important: 1) military, 2) economic, 3) technical, 4) cultural. To achieve dominance, the combination of strength of all four is decisive. Alternatively, it is possible to narrow this thesis to the three areas studied here: military – political – economic, since technological progress is also related to economy and cultural aspects are reflected in political perception. It can therefore be assumed that the strongest players of global significance will orient themselves in this direction. We can often hear or read theses about the so-called great chessboard, depicting the playing field of the world with efforts to master the game of power. However, as a result of observing individual moves of various players, it is possible to arrive at the supposition whether rather than a chessboard it is not a children's sandbox, precisely with regard to evaluation of often completely irrational decision-making resembling the mentality of small children, trampling their laboriously created sand castles, thus behavior exhibiting certain mental immaturity. If we nevertheless accepted the comparison to a chess game, it is evident that some players play rather frenzied checkers or chess with ill-conceived strategy with reckless moves and passive approach, while others are capable of thinking significantly more strategically and considering several moves ahead. Such a player is undoubtedly China with its specific mentality, conditioned and supported by different philosophy. It can be admitted that probably the fewest strategic mistakes will be made precisely by China.
Further development will undoubtedly be affected by additional factors such as utilization of cyberspace, development of other technologies including engagement of artificial intelligence or broader utilization of outer space, but also interethnic conflicts in the form of clashes of religions and cultures, and not only in connection with the migration phenomenon. In the long-term horizon, depleting resources of raw materials will also play a role, undoubtedly also water, which is why the thesis of war for resources is often mentioned. It is also possible to count on occurrence of further pandemics, perhaps even more aggressive than the last one. It is also necessary to consider demographic development, as Europe and Western civilization are aging, while in other parts of the world population explosion may grow, which will lead to creation of strong imbalance. Related to this may be physiological predispositions within the gene pool of inhabitants of some areas, which is documented by research results stating increased resistance and faster convalescence after injuries of the population east of the Urals, which may lead to the hypothesis of greater chances of survival of possible fatal events with impacts on population health.
Overall increasing instability is a real threat to further development, with real risk of outbreak of deeper crises, including the economic sphere, as well as escalation and multiplication of military conflicts that may grow into a global conflict, quite possibly in this connection the designation will change from world to global (global war). Much also suggests that the world, or rather leading powers, are really preparing for this eventuality; current conflicts are thus testers of combat readiness, tests of modern military technology, seeking suitable forms of hybrid conduct of confrontation. In the military area, increasingly clear rivalry between powers can be observed, leading to increasing armament expenditures and creation of new military alliances (AUKUS, QUAD, etc.). New technologies within weapons systems will change the nature of future conflicts, and thus lead to intensive research and development in the field of military technology. Key powers are investing in these innovations to ensure military superiority.
The United States and the European Union will undoubtedly continue to face internal and external challenges that weaken their position. Internal problems such as political polarization in the USA, the EU weakened by Brexit, and strengthening positions of various extreme and nationalist-oriented political entities undermine Western integrity. Externally, they face and will face Chinese expansion and Russian aggression, especially in connection with the war in Ukraine. These conflicts may lead to ulterior long-term division of Europe into areas influenced by the West and those that will be more oriented towards Russia and China, or towards the East. In the future, vertical polarization can also be considered, thus South vs. North, with regard to possible predictions of economic, population, and other related development.
Besides powers such as the USA, China, and Russia, medium-strong powers are emerging, such as India, Turkey, or Brazil, which will play a key role in redistribution of spheres of influence, especially in their regions. India, for example, is becoming a counterweight to China in Asia, and Turkey is assuming an increasingly significant role in the Middle East and North Africa.
In the economic area, polarization of the world into two large blocs will probably continue, simply designated as Western and Eastern, or Russo-Chinese, while the importance of regional cooperation and protectionism will grow. Trade wars in various forms will continue, which will inevitably lead to partial weakening of all actors. Chinese economic expansion and its investments in critical infrastructure in many countries of the world, especially in Africa and Latin America, will only intensify Chinese influence at the global level. To this must be added its future military superiority probably not only in its region, which all may lead to real dominance of China, thus also change of world order.
As for Europe's position, as already mentioned, if it wants to withstand current development, perhaps better said survive, it must carry out deep reforms in many directions, among which consideration of more intensive integration through application of a federative arrangement model is possible. However, it does not appear that the current European administration would be capable of such deep self-reflection, which should be the necessary foundation for the process of necessary changes; the necessary will and political courage are lacking. Quite possibly it will first have to undergo a certain form of catharsis as a result of deeper conflict or crisis for truly effective processes to be initiated. The question remains whether it will not already be too late and whether instead there will be fragmentation and long-term irreversible decline. Even from this perspective, the idea of timely reactivation and reformation of the V4 bloc may appear meaningful, when high potential of such an internal alliance is evident here with the possibility of generating a more significant geopolitical player, or if you will – a geopolitical pivot, as co-creator of the game. In this connection, it is possible to mention also a reflection from which it is possible to arrive at the hypothesis that the more Ukraine loses its position, if it loses it within the new arrangement after the conflict ends, the more Poland's geopolitical significance will rise; therefore it is appropriate to consider strengthening the common bloc between neighboring states with common regional history and future interests.
4. Postfatio – Summary
Global development is heading towards a multipolar world order where several key powers compete for influence in various spheres. This process of world redistribution will be driven by political, economic, and military interests, with regional powers playing an increasingly significant role. Division of spheres of influence will occur not only between West and East but also within new regional alliances and will be significantly influenced by technological and climate changes. The world that emerges will be less globalized, more fragmented, and based on economic and political competition among several power blocs.
The human factor cannot be overlooked either; thus it will also be "about people at the helm," which is documented among other things by the electoral result in the USA, from which it can be inferred that the stronger the personality at the head of a power, the more significant changes can be expected. It is also necessary to count on possible increase of extremism as a result of deeper crises, where it is possible to identify the risk of influence, or rather achievement of power positions, by modern-day Austrian pseudo-painters-landscapists as a result of people turning in desperation and frustration to "saviors" from the ranks of both extremist poles of the political spectrum. Electoral results in some countries perhaps indicate this gradual trend, including the emerging trend of nationalism, which may accelerate precisely in case of deeper crisis.
One can only hope that humanity's survival instinct will not allow a fatal catastrophe – conflicts and wars belong to humanity, it is part of nature, but from developed civilized societies more rational and prudent thinking and seeking constructively oriented solutions can be expected. However, it cannot be ruled out that for a certain period peace will be a rare commodity.
Whether a global conflict occurs or not, one of the consequences will probably also be acceleration of humanity's development in all affected areas. We can express the hypothesis that the deeper the conflict, except for a fatally catastrophic scenario, the faster and more intensive the subsequent development will be. Ultimately it will move humanity significantly forward, because sometimes it is necessary to first demolish a non-functional ruin so that a house can be built again on new foundations.
For the impacts to be as least harmful as possible, it can or rather should be the task of pragmatically oriented diplomacy to eliminate or reduce barriers, mutual differences, and conversely seek intersections – develop relations through trade, cultural exchange, invest effort and finances in problematic regions which may conversely be promising in the long-term horizon, become opportunities. If diplomacy is the art of the impossible, then it should be everyone's duty to continuously strive for the impossible. A difficult task, but not impossible.
Whatever the development may be, one thing is certain: the world will be different.
One can only conclude with an optimistic outlook, however with an appeal to current threats and risks and the obligation of prevention. For developed civilized societies this must be a challenge with an obligation to exert maximum effort to prevent deeper crises and global conflict.
Some questions remain open, among which we can ask whether it was appropriate to reject the idea of Slavic mutuality and admit unnatural separation in our region, or how we might look at the gradually changing positions of representatives of the Czech Republic with the distance of several more decades, if the Czech Republic is still on the world map or whether it becomes part of broader geopolitical entities, whether as a result of more significant conflicts or naturally dynamic development within a future trend.
Ladislav J. Janků
